Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The Economy and Politics

If the positive momentum of the US economy continues throughout the year, and that’s a big IF, the presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney could have a tough time in November.

Let’s look at the current stats: the unemployment rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent, with payrolls increasing by 200,000 in December - the biggest rise in three months. The economy added 1.6 million jobs last year, the most since 2006, and the jobless rate, which peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, has dropped 0.6 percentage point in the last four months. Commercial investment is up by 10% and inflation is relatively low.

Could Barack Obama be happier? I don’t think so. He welcomed the news and urged Congress to extend a two-month payroll tax cut through 2012 to help sustain the recovery. "We're moving in the right direction. When Congress returns they should extend the middle-class tax cut for all of this year, to make sure we keep this recovery going," he said.

Still, all is far from perfect: Employment remains about 6.1 million below its pre-recession level and at December's pace of job growth, it would take about 2-1/2 years to win those jobs back. There are roughly 4.3 unemployed people for every job opening.Although construction and Courier jobs increased due to the mild weather and the holidays respectively, those jobs could be lost in January and the unemployment rate might rise as Americans who had abandoned the hunt for work are lured back into the labor market. Still, 23.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed.

The jobs data could be overshadowed by Europe's debt crisis. With the labor market far from healthy, the debt crisis in Europe unresolved and tensions over Iran threatening to drive up oil prices, re-election for the current administration is by no means guaranteed.

C. Cohn
Cohn-Reilly Report

_______________COMMENT


K. Reilly Said.....
I couldn't agree with you more. Although it looks good for the current administration, there are so many variables (mentioned in your article) that could reshape the country's direction and self perception. This will impact voter concerns, and who they believe will make it all better. Welcome back Charlie!

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K. Reilly /Jan 18, 2012 10:46 PM

1 comment:

  1. I couldn't agree with you more. Although it looks good for the current administration, there are so many variables (mentioned in your article) that could reshape the country's direction and self perception. This will impact voter concerns, and who they believe will make it all better. Welcome back Charlie!

    ReplyDelete