Where Do Investors Turn for Safety?

As the market appeared to gradually recover from the S&P downgrade of US Debt, there was still a sense that institutions and investors were pausing for a sign that the economy is on solid footing. There were those sitting on the sidelines like sharks waiting for a discount buying opportunity, but for the most part, fear had taken hold on investors. This is clearly reflected in the trading shifts that can be seen just by looking at rising gold prices.

The financial crisis which has had a death grip on US economy, has not been kind to Europe either. This is extremely unusual time where financial markets are concerned. Historically investors and institutions would diversify their portfolios by spreading the risk between stocks, bonds and European securities or foreign currency.

The wisdom of this strategy is simply this: when stocks are not doing so well, the bond yields and overseas securities and currency trades, would mitigate the overall portfolio losses. This is precisely why the mantra for investing has been to diversify. Remember the devastated employees of Enron, and WorldCom who had enjoyed fat portfolios values in the millions. These unsuspecting employee/shareholders swiftly went from being millionaires to being completely broke. Why, because they had only one stock in their portfolio -no other stocks, government bonds, or foreign investments to offset the plunging Enron stock - which ultimately became worthless. Traditionally portfolio managers would use government treasuries and bonds, along with foreign investments as safe havens.

Given the sluggish U.S. economy and S&P downgrade, the overseas market would normally serve as safe havens. However, the coninuing rash of bailouts overseas eliminates the prospects of a safe place to invest, while awaiting economic stability in the U.S.

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Horror on Wall St.- Rated PG:

Another Finance Industry Horror Begins to Unfolds

Like a bad horror film, relentless slashing is imminent, and likely resulting in a blood bath of Wall Street employees, running for cover(unemployment line). Thousands of innocent victims scattered on the street as a result of massive Wall St. cuts....you get the idea. In all seriousness though, this will be a living nightmare for those hard working employees who will lose their jobs in the coming months.

As trading remains lackluster, the impact on returns have forced Banks to consider another merciless round of trimming. Certainly many perceived that the Market's continuous climb past DOW 12,000 meant it was going to be safe from a repeat of the economic trauma that plagued 2008. Well, from my standpoint, Wall St. may not revisit the lows and panic of 2008, but the Market is far from being “safe”.

Although the economy has managed to gain traction over the past 18 months, and bring the unemployment rate below 10%, it has not stabilized substantially enough - at least not in the way we had hoped. The monetary and fiscal policies of the Obama Administration and Federal Reserve have not had the impact on the economy that they anticipated either. This comes at a bad time for the President and the Democrats as they gear up for next year’s elections.

In the last 3 years, businesses have been sleeping with one eye open, if they're sleeping at all. Let’s face it, the economy is just not recovering fast enough. If you combine bank losses from the first 6-months of last year, and the first 6-months of 2011, it is estimated at $20 billion globally. That number only represents the lost revenues of 9 of the top banks. The Wall St. Journal Article “Wielding the Ax” quoted Michael Karp of Options Groups as saying “banks are cutting a lot of deadwood and live wood”. Based upon the word on the Street, this apears to be a statement of truth.

Banks have taken just about all they can stand from the Wall Street slump, and report plans to take steps toward trimming down the staff. A few of the tops Banks are ready to make severe cuts in annual expenses, as early as this week. Austerity is not limited to the borders of Europe, J.P. Morgan, alone, is preparing to trim nearly a billion in annual expenses. Credit Suisse Group laid off investment banking employees, as part of the planned layoff of 400-600 jobs, while Barlcays is expected to cut additional jobs - on top of the 600 jobs eliminated in January. Goldman Sachs' annual Survival-of-the-fittest program ( 5% annual reductions) wont be enough this year, therefore deeper cuts can be expected. Surprisingly though, Goldman still plans to add jobs in Brazil, India and Singapore.

There's a saying; When Wall St. sneezes, the rest of us catch a cold. That said, prepare for the worst, and hope forthe best.

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Justice is Served: Hedge Fund Titan is Slammed

Like a woman scorned, Lady Justice took the ultimate revenge; A Guilty Verdict. The Manhattan U.S. Attorney, Preet Bharara, made good on his promise to crack down on illegal trading on Wall Street. After a week of deliberations, the verdict is in and Galleon Group Founder, Rajaratnam, was found guilty on 14 counts of securities fraud and conspiracy. The co-founder and former head of the Galleon Group is officially a convicted Felon, facing 15-19 years in prison. Three cheers for Justice and the fight against unbridled greed in corporate America.

During the trial the Jurors listened hours of testimony and dozens of secretly recorded calls that clearly revealed that Rajaratnam was trafficking in illicit information. An interview of the jurors revealed their efforts not to rush to judgment. Ms. Gorman, one of the jurors, explained that they painstakingly comb through the stock charts, trading records and witness photos. Adding that they went through the evidence deal by deal. When questioned, jurors admitted to being very impressed by the Sri Lankan defendant and referred to him as a “smart man”. Nevertheless, the prosecutor provided hard evidence that was very persuasive in the end.

In my view, insider trading is a directly related to greed, and the prevalence of it in the finance industry is rampant. These hedge fund managers and traders feel privileged, above the law, and think that they’re so much smarter than the rest of us. They’re so blinded by their own narcissism and conceit, that they are convinced no one will ever see through their scheme. Rajaratnam was ever so clever, but obviously not clever enough. This case is a tragedy on many levels, particularly that which concerns humanity. I think of how this brilliant Sri Lankan could have been a celebrated hero to poor, young men and women in his country and to struggling immigrants here in America, but instead he opted to worship money and disgrace his family and his country.

This is not the last we will hear about this vast insider trading case, there are aparently 12 more traders that have been lassoed into this case, so I am sure they are beginning to realize the severity of their predicament.

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GM: Watching a Success Story Unfold

The once stellar Blue Chip company, which had all but fallen off a cliff, was rescued days before it threatened to shut its doors for good. Against all odds, and with the involuntary support of the taxpayers (bailout Funds) GM went into structured bankruptcy like a battered lamb, and emerged like a lion. Eighteen months ago, there were more than enough economists, auto industry analysts and political figures arguing against bailing out the big three auto makers. The American people had also had their fill of Bailouts, especially as increasing numbers feared being laid off.

Keeping hope alive, GM pressed on.
The IPO issued November of last year, brought in over $20.1 billion, with an additional $2 billion raised in the days following the historic offering. GM’s offering goes down as the biggest Initial Public offering Ever. There were several objectives at play here; to capitalize the new firm to get back on its feet, pay off creditors, pay back most (if not all) of the Government bailout funds, and revitalize their brand. The company’s market valuation was estimated to settle somewhere in the range of $50-70 billion after the much anticipated IPO. However, in reality analysts estimated that the company needed to yield a total valuation closer to $70 billion if the government was going to break-even on the bailout funds.

Although GM’s marketing campaign was well received in the weeks leading up to the sale, the IPO did not stand up to the hype and expectations. Ultimately, the valuation landed on the bottom range of the estimate at $50 billion, with a share price of $33 per share. Still, considering the size of the IPO, it was a huge success.

As the sales numbers continue to climb a success story begins to take shape. Reuters reported that last month marked a 49% jump in auto sales for GM, as a clear affirmation that their business strategy is working. Further, the 102-year old corporation posted four consecutive profitable quarters, which yielded a net income of 4.7 billion for the calendar year, with gross revenues of $135.6 billion in its first full-year of operations. Well done GM, well Done.

So far, it would appear that GM has taken lemons and set up a lemonade stand. It is exciting to watch the GM comeback success story unfold.

Interesting Article concerning GM's Move to Cut unnecessary spending amid Japan Disaster, Click Here

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Myspace: Down but Not Out

Presently down, but in no way out of the game, Myspace, which is currently owned by News Corp, has hired investment banking firm Allen & Company to sift through the nearly two dozen firms interested in an acquisition or merger with the social networking site. Although Myspace’s popularity has been edged out by Facebook in recent years, it still has over a quarter of a million users. Since the social networking pioneer is free to it members, advertisers and affiliate contracts has been the main source of income, thus revenues began to take off by '2005. We’ve reported how well Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg made out with a recent infusion of $1.5 billion via creative financing put together by Goldman Sachs. The Goldman-Zuckerberg finance documents indicated a Facebook value of an astounding $50 billion.

To put it in perspective, of the growing number of social networking sites, Myspace is ranked 3rd - just under Facebook and Twitter. So, what is the likely valuation? By the 2nd quarter of 2007, Myspace was on track to surpass the expected $500 million in revenues, but has since seen revenues decline steadily with intense competition stemming from Facebook and Twitter.

The Wall Street Journal Reported that News Corp is open to merging Myspace with another business in exchange for cash or equity in the merged firm. Myspace is a longway from the solid financial footing of Facebook, but New Corp realizes there is untapped potential in the Myspace brand. Considering the reported 4th quarter losses amounting to over $150 million, how can this, still viable, business be restructured, and re-marketed to emerge profitable once again? I suppose that will be for the winning bidder, and their business strategists to determine.

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Will Oil Derail the Recovery?

Here we go again. As we know by now, most of the major downturns that have occurred in the US and the world, since the 1970s, have been preceded by sudden increases in oil prices. We are at levels, currently around the $100/barrel mark, that will impact inflation, GDP growth and potentially employment.

As described by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, since the United States is a net importer of oil, higher oil prices affect the purchasing power of U.S. national income through their affect on the international terms of trade. The increased price of imported oil forces U.S. businesses to devote more of their production to exports, as opposed to satisfying domestic demand for goods and services, even if there is no change in the quantity of foreign oil consumed.

When oil prices increase, the consumer suffers – sounds all too familiar. Purchasing power diminishes as consumers use more of their income to pay for products that are directly affected by oil such as gasoline, heating petroleum, and jet fuel. Less money is spent on other goods and services causing a vicious cycle of contraction, due to decreases in retail expenditures and diminishing confidence. Since companies depend on oil for transportation and other operational needs, the increased costs to run businesses are passed along to the consumer in the form of inflationary prices. To further compensate for increased energy costs and less demand, firms will reduce the bottom line of expenses by laying off workers. This scenario results in lower GDP and higher unemployment.

Since we have made some real progress during the last 12 months for economic recovery, I am hoping we do not fall back into a recession pattern, but oil is a real risk here. After Tunisia, the unrest spread to Egypt, causing a spike in prices due to worries about the possibility of the Suez Canal shutting down; one of the most important oil transport passageways in the world. The Libya uprising caused more market jitters as 1.5 million barrels a day of oil was choked off, later covered by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to prevent shortages. The unrest appears to be continuing and spreading as protests have been reported by CNN in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Oman, Yemen and others in the region. Interestingly, it was reported yesterday that there could be protests in Saudi Arabia coming. Since it doesn’t take much for oil prices to react quickly - that would certainly adversely affect the market if it really happened. Also, the high peak spring/summer driving months are approaching - could we have $5 a gallon gas prices? Some analysts think it is possible, given the uncertainly of what is happening in the world and how oil reacts to it. I certainly hope not, because the scenario I outlined above could become a reality.

Read about the higher Oil Prices' Impact on Housing Recovery
C. Cohn
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US Dollar: A Safe Haven Reversal

The US Dollar is generally a safe-haven when the global markets are volatile. This was illustrated this past summer, during the EU financial crisis, when the dollar rose nearly 10%. According to the WSJ, the dollar actually rose 24% against major currencies during the financial crisis, which had a global rippling effect. But alas, the Dollar has hit a snag, as political unrest in Africa and the Middle East sends the dollar in the other direction. Investors are likely concerned over regions in turmoil prices overshadow the foreign exchange markets. The key difference is the attention to our heavy reliance on energy, as we watch the oil prices climb. This is what is driving the currency downward against other major currencies.
Even though America’s overall reliance on oil has declined in recent years, oil remains our capital weakness. US Consumption is still much higher than Europe and Japan, whose currencies are not as impacted by the mid-east fallout. There is a saying: “One man’s loss, is another man’s gain”: as the US Dollar suffers declines as a result of anticipated Oil price surge, other currencies, such as the Swiss Franc, the Norwegian Krone, and Canadian Dollar have seen gains. In contrast to the Unites States, the latter two countries are large oil exporters, with lower consumption than the US. France’s consumption is also much less than the US, which perhaps explains the currencies jump to high levels against the dollar last Thursday. As for the US Dollar; Fasten your seat belts, this is going to be a bumpy ride.