Back in the last quarter of 2010, as the big three Auto manufacturers lobbied for bail outs, and later filed for bankruptcy, Detroit's fate was all but sealed. Well, the fat lady is singing, and this is a political and public relations mess. There are hints of mismanagement or misappropriation of funds and a fair share of finger pointing - but at the core of the municipality's fiscal crisis are the Pension funds. How will the courts handle retiree payouts: will they remain at par or will they be reduced? The residents of Detroit are in for an interesting turn of events. This is a serious wake up call, to say the least.
How did this filing come about? Well, from what I can tell, Snyder seemed to have been trying to quietly handle the crisis. Seeing the writing on the wall, Governor Snyder wanted to avoid a possible downgrade of Michigan’s credit rating, which is likely following a messy "unmanaged" bankruptcy. The crisis management strategy was to get ahead of the problem, so that the worst case scenario is a "Structured" bankruptcy - thereby minimizing the negative impact on the State's overall credit rating. The Wall St. Journal reported that Snyder brought in Kevyn Orr as an Emergency Money Manager to work aggressively to get Detroit’s fiscal house in order. Snyder's secret weapon, Orr, was apparently granted “dictatorship” style authority, essentially rendering the city’s finance department and controller powerless. Kevyn Orr was the lead attorney handling the Chrysler structured bankruptcy, so it could be construed as a sound decision. However, from another perspective, one might say that hiring a bankruptcy attorney is like appointing a wolf to watch over a hen house.
How serious is it when a city files for Bankruptcy? .
California has probably seen the most cases of bankruptcy than any other state - with city after city filing for bankruptcy protection as a result of the housing crisis and pour money management. The jury is still out as to whether California's troubled counties will recover gracefully. Whatever the case, the road back to solvency is a long and arduous one. As for Detroit, it was clearly heading in the wrong direction prior to the start of Great Recession. In fact, long before the Recession rocked the nation, and later Europe, Detroit was already showing obvious signs of fiscal discord. Their key source of jobs and tax revenue stemmed from the auto industry and ancillary products and services. Although many local businesses and retailers benefited from the economic "trickled down".
In all fairness, we can't place Detroit's troubles entirely on the shoulders of the auto industry. There are multiple factors playing into the city's demise. For example: tax revenues over the past 25 years have been on a steady decline as the population and businesses fled to greener pastures. The City of Detroit, at its peak (1950s), had a population of 1.8 million, but the most recent Census Bureau records illustrate a more than 65% decline. The disturbing reality is that Detroit presently has a population of merely 700 thousand - particularly considering the demographics and socio-economic landscape. Adding insult to injury, over the past 5 to 6 decades the population exodus happen to be primarily the middle class, leaving the city with a disproportionate number of low-income residents. What this boils down to is a dwindling tax revenue base, and increased spending for public assistance, healthcare and other subsidy programs. The economic cycle can only spirals downward from there, unless a drastic changes are made.
The “Economics-101” explanation would be as follows: When you have a predominately low-income or impoverished population, this translates to a largely unskilled and uneducated labor force – which means local-area businesses can’t fill higher paying jobs that require specialized skills or education. This distressed socio –economic environment drives business out. In turn, joblessness decreases consumer spending, which ultimately cause retailers to close down.
High unemployment was not Detroit’s biggest problem. Job creation doesn't help in this scenario unless there’s a strategy implemented to attract businesses and manufacturers with jobs that match the skills of the population. Sheer job creation (in a vacuum)is nothing unless there is also a comprehensive plan to educate or provide training to upgrade the skills of the local workforce.
Political fallout is eminent, and everyone will be watching to see if Obama will extend an “bail out” to Detroit, since he was vehemently supportive of the big-3 auto makers in their time of need. With any luck, the people, politicians, unions, educators and activists will be open minded enough to work together and find a common ground for rebuilding Detroit. This may turn out to be for the best in the long run
K. Reilly
The Cohn-Reilly Report
Facebook.com/cohn.reilly
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
WANTED: Transformational Leaders:
Friday, June 21, 2013
Redbox Fully loaded: Can Netflix Stay 1-Step Ahead ?
You may recall the of Summer of 2011, when Netflix's CEO (Reed Hastings) made the grave mistake of announcing their brilliant plan to separate the DVD Rental and Streaming Video business into two revenue streams. Charging $8.00 per month for each – essentially doubling the cost for customers who were enjoying access to both for only $8. The ill-fated plan was announced one moment and denounced the next, as customers made their feelings of disgust known. A mass exodus of 800,000 customers within a matter of weeks was an undeniable message to the business community that the Customer is Boss. By October, in response to the backlash, Hastings apologized to customers. He announced that the company decided not to separate the services for now, adding that they were moving too fast.
Netflix reported a loss of 800,000 subscribers in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Since Analysts predicted a loss of only 600,000, the market reacted unfavorably with a swiftly decline of over 20%. The company warned of more defections and stated that they anticipate losses for the first quarter of 2012 as a result of expanding their business to Europe. Netflix did not anticipate the fast and furious decline in market valuation, eroding their stock price from its highs The $305 per share in July 2011 to below $53 by September. By the year's end, Netflix has lost a million subscribers in the aftermath.
Using the Netflix business model, Redbox came onto the scene quietly, but well prepared to gradually scoop up stray Netflix customers. Then the Netflix blunder created a glorious opportunity or “gift” for any company poised to take advantage of it……. that company was Redbox. The gift translated into instant market share and name recognition, as news coverage of Netflix’s new strategy made reference to Redbox in just about every report.Jusk think; a sizable number of displaced Netflix customers were now searching the net for a comparable alternative to the DVD and streaming video service. Redbox scrapped-up stray, and disgruntled customers for the first 90 days following Nextflix’s announcement. It’s quite possible that Redbox pulled in the entire 4% market share Netflix lost.
As a business major in grad school, students learn a great deal about the world of business through reading piles of case studies and statistics about corporations that were successful versus those that folded. We learn that the fate and longevity of a product or service has a lot to do with originality or satisfying an underserved demand. In such a scenario, the first to enter the market with a new product idea or service is referred to as “Market Maker”, or “Market Leader”. The Market Leader holds an enormous advantage over those that follow in their footsteps. Research has shown that market leaders are likely to maintain the lion's share of the market for decades – unless the product or service becomes obsolete, such is the case (for example) with beepers. In keeping with this statistic, Netflix did eventually recover having lost 85% of their valuation, and approximately 4% of their business.
Nevertheless, the Netflix blunder, nearly two years ago, served to kick-start the new-comer, Redbox. As unhappy consumers fled Netflix, the gift of market share was well received and now Redbox is ready for a new challenge – Streaming videos.
Well Netflix, “It is On”! You don’t have to be a market expert to conclude that this will be a battle for market share we haven’t seen since the early days of Coke and Pepsi. I look forward to the continued growth of Redbox, and hope the competition will inspire higher standards and consistently low prices. Redbox Instant, will be offered on the Roku box, and made available on Sony Playstation-4 consoles. Good luck Redbox, and may the force be with you!
K. Reilly
The Cohn-Reilly Report
www.facebook.com/cohn.reilly
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Employment Not As Rosy As You May Think
There are job openings at a level not seen in years. However, the time it takes to fill a job has increased to 23 business days compared to 15 in mid-2009. Although the economy is improving, the reality is companies are reluctant to hire, holding up the process by making candidates interview over weeks or months, before a decision is made, if one is made at all.
“There’s a fear that the economy is going to go down again, so the message you get from C.F.O.’s is to be careful about hiring someone,” said John Sullivan, a management professor at San Francisco State University who runs a human resources consulting business. “There’s this great fear of making a mistake, of wasting money in a tight economy.” The result is an unreported hiring freeze that seems to be in place, especially for higher skilled workers.
“If you have an opening and are not sure about the economy, it’s pretty cheap to wait for a month or two,” said Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University. But in the aggregate, those little delays are stretching out the recovery process. “It’s like one of those horror movies, an economic Friday the 13th, where this recession never seems to die.”
Although job creation has improved over the last two years, it has little impact on the backlog of unemployed workers. Uncertainty, regarding the effect of fiscal policies in Washington adds to employer indecisiveness. In addition, employers want to make sure that workers who have been out of a job for months or years are up to date with current skills, said Robert Shimer, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, before they agree to on board a candidate.
Employers are under no pressure to hire – one reason as indicated in government labor reports, is high productivity. What this means is employees are working double and triple duty because employers are reluctant to hire additional staff. If they do, to lower labor costs, some companies have imported talent from abroad, especially in the technical fields, at much lower rates than their counterparts in the USA would normally command. In addition, outsourcing continues overseas, further reducing opportunities.
Until the psychological barriers are lifted regarding the fate of the economy and changes are made to reward companies who hire American workers, frustration may continue for quite some time, for domestically unemployed workers.
C. Cohn
The Cohn-Reilly Report
www.Facebook.com/Cohn.Reilly
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Monday, March 11, 2013
A MARKET ON FIRE
There is no denying, the market is on fire. This begs the question: ”Does this mean we’re officially out of the woods with respect to our struggling economy?” Remarkably, of the trillions of dollars in investment capital that was either lost in declines or fled the market four years ago, it appears to have made its way back into the stock market. As for today, we have sufficiently surpassed the highs of 2007, but we’re looking at levels that bely the overall economic picture - particularly from the standpoint of government debt and anticipated spending cuts.
Market for 2013 is already yielding 10% growth, just in the first two months. We have seen 10% market growth for an entire year.
Is this a repeat of “irrational exuberance”? (a now famous phrase coined by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan). Perhaps you recall - not long after Greenspan warned that the over priced tech stocks was caused by irrational exuberance, the Dot Com bubble burst. This historic occurrence resulted in massive losses that sent investors running for cover. Billions of dollars in losses, rendered many of Silicon Valley’s young millionaires nearly broke. The state of the country’s economy was significantly more stable at that time, thus the Dot Com bust was not nearly as devastating as it could have been. Since the US economy (as it stands today) is still in a rather delicate state, regardless of the zealous market – it wouldn’t easily recover without collateral damage, and a possible slip back into a recession. The economic indicators are mixed, but there ARE clear signs of stabilization. For example, Manufacturing industry is showing signs of growth, the Housing market is rebounding, and employers are finally feeling confident enough to hire. Nevertheless, the Stock Market is out pacing all indicators, and seemingly ignorant to political issues that threaten fiscal mayhem. Warren Buffet was quoted last week as saying “Markets are Stronger than Government”, and this has proven to be true. Hopefully, we’ve learned from our mistakes, and current market prices are based upon substantiated valuations. My optimism is tempered by reflection.
K Reilly
The Cohn-Reilly Report
www.Facebook.com/Cohn.Reilly
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Monday, March 4, 2013
Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures:Yahoo CEO is Poised for the Challenge
Over a decade ago, when Yahoo was the technology darling of NASDAQ, it traded as high as $445 a share (Jan 1999) - while today it trades under $25 per share. That said, the dynamic CEO certainly has her work cut out for her. As brilliant as she is beautiful, Mayer broke the gender barrier at Google, as being the first female engineer there. Often described as “tough as nails” Mayer rose through the ranks – steadily up the Google management ladder, but seemed to have recently been overlooked for Larry Page’s Senior Leadership Team. Perhaps that made it a whole lot easier for Mayer to say goodbye to Google.
After an exhaustive search, for their next CEO, Yahoo stunned the tech community when they crowned Marissa Mayer as their next Chief Executive. In just six months, Yahoo’s newest CEO has created firestorm of media attention, and an unrelenting buzz, even rising to thelevel of outrage at times. This could be both good and bad for the company, but time will tell which way the pendulum will ultimately swing in that regard
Technology advancements have pushed the envelope in favor of telecommuting, while the troubled economy forced corporations of all sizes to rethink their policies and staffing structures. The global fiscal crisis created an opportunity for corporations to develop creative staffing and compensation structures to optimize space and costs. The tech companies had already created a blueprint that was implemented in varying degrees over the past decade.
So why is the move away from Telecommuting so controversial? In this age of advanced technology, the internet and wireless communication fostered globalization, and with it came the Telecommuting. Multinational corporations and small companies alike sought to optimize efficiency and costs by implementing mixed workforce (sometimes in different countries) which gave prominence to remote work options. Telecommuting has become a high accepted and commonly utilized working method, particularly for younger, innovative companies. A highly positive perception of Tech firms stem from the fact that the technology firms of the 21st century emphasized the importance of employee satisfaction concepts that promote employee-centric policies in support of work/life balance.
Nevertheless, this whole spectacle seems odd, and yet so telling of how powerful Marissa Mayer actually is. It is almost as if the future of Telecommuting is riding on this one decision, particularly due to the high profile of Yahoo, being one of THE most visible brands in the world. The fact is, Mayer has a sound strategy to get the company culture back to cutting edge innovation. In the spirit of mavericks like Steve Jobs, there’s a need for “all hands on deck” attitude to shake the company up. In all fairness, given Mayer’s Degree in engineering and Masters in Science Technology, she is far more suited for the challenge than her predecessors. The 4th quarter earnings report yields a 26% increase, year over year. That's a clear indication that Mayer's strategy is already having a positive impact on the company.
K Reilly
The Cohn-Reilly Report
www.Facebook.com/Cohn.Reilly
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Dancing with the Devil: A Breach of Trust
I was engaged in a debate about the role Goldman Sachs may have played in the downfall of Greece’s economy with a relative (through marriage) who migrated from Greece to the United States when she was 10. My research on the near collapse of the US financial market clearly points to the gradual deregulation and the unethical banking practices. There are a number of factors that contributed to the fiscal crisis, particularly the securitization of subprime Housing Loans, re-packaged and sold Globally as “A” rated paper. Regardless of the fact that the underlying debt was “C” rated, banks had the audacity to sell the mortgage-backed securities as “A” rated, low risk bonds. Of course, we can’t ignore the rampant Securities and Banking fraud, which generated hundreds of charges and investigations by the SEC against Banks and Hedge Funds.
I’ve written numerous articles about the Euro crisis. Like many economists, I believe the U.S. fiscal crisis precipitated the downward spiral of a number of EU members. This is mainly because of large quantities of foreign investment in U.S. Housing securities, which went sour. Much to my surprise, in the process of gathering data surrounding the global crisis, I learned that EU members; Greece, Italy, Spain and France, carried out non-transparent, accounting practices for over a decade. No doubt the high debt ratios hidden by accounting loop-holes would have eventually brought the weakest EU members to fiscal ruin at some point anyway.Although, our financial calamity accelerated the timeline of the reveal. America's financial troubles was the equivalent of lighter fluid, igniting the masked problems of the EU’s weakest links.
Apparently the Greek-American community seem to have a different slant on how Greece's economy found itself engulfed in a fiscal and political battle for stability. The lack of transparency and debt-to-revenue ratio was certainly taking its toll on the weakest EU members. This was made worse when changing leadership was blind-sighted by the urgency of country’s debt portfolio – particularly the derivative-structured debt owed to Goldman Sachs. When the housing market collapsed, interest rates increased, drastically increasing the debt service on the Goldman/Sardelis deal
My Greek-American in-law (who shall remain nameless), vehemently contends that Goldman Sachs is the monster that brought her beloved country to its knees. This is hardly the case, since Greece's debt was already 127% of its GDP by 2009. Also, by that time, Greece was seeking a bailout for over 300 billion Euros. Nevertheless, She was referring to a secret transaction between Goldman and the Managing Director of Public Debt Management Agency (Christoforos Sardelis), back in 2001, where a masked loan of $2.8 billion Euros was signed, sealed and delivered. Executed completely under the radar. The loan, which was thought to be earmarked for the preparation of hosting the 2004 Olympics, was later revealed not to be the case. Although I admit, the unholy alliance with Goldman was a financial set back, it was not the smoking gun.
The under-the-radar transaction executed by Sardelis and Goldman was a Currency Swap. Given the variable rate structure, there was mounting debt service, as interest rates increased, making it difficult for Greece to contain. I appears that Greece’s Debt Management Agency didn’t thoroughly analyze the deal to determine the long-term impact of this type of debt structure for Greece, given their compromised economy. A simple “what if” analysis would have helped them to analyze the impact of increasing interest rates. The Currency Swap transaction belongs to the derivative family, which are always complicated to quantify or analyze given the fluctuating market, currency and structure. These are highly risky transactions, and certainly not recommended for unstable municipalities suffering from high debt, declining GDP, and 25% unemployment.
The secret deal between Sardelis and Goldman could be classified as irresponsible given the size of the debt, and the fact that it was tied to fluctuating interest rates. The operative word being, “fluctuating”. Regardless of Sardelis’ good intentions, “it takes two to tango”. Therefore, Sardelis is equally at fault. My Greek-American in-law may be reluctant to accept it, but the blame has to be shared.
Since 2010, when I initially started writing about the Euro crisis, I learned that Sardelis was motivated by the Maastricht Treaty, requiring all EU members to show “improvement” in their public finances. This Goldman swap was a "dance with the devil" and simply a desperate attempt to “hide” the debt from the country’s books to comply with the Maastricht Treaty. These swaps were one of several techniques that European governments used to meet the terms of the treaty. There were certainly alternatives techniques available, so why did Goldman push this particular structure? Whatever the case, Sardelis was out of his element, and out smarted by his trusted Bankers. It was reported in the Wall St. journal that Goldman served up fictitious, historical exchange rates for the transaction, which earned them $760 million in U.S. fees.
Goldman Sachs may soon be faced with a public image dilemma, but until then I supposed they’ll continue to carryout their Mission to squeeze clients for every possible dollar.
K Reilly
The Cohn-Reilly Report
www.Facebook.com/Cohn.Reilly
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Could you make a list of the complete urls of all your shared pages like your twitter
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